Dreaming of a White Christmas? These States Have the Best Odds
The classic image of a White Christmas, with snow blanketing the ground, is a cherished holiday dream for many. But for much of the country, it remains just that: a dream. If you’re wondering which places offer the best chance to see snow on December 25th, you’ve come to the right place. We’ll explore the states where a White Christmas is practically a guarantee and what makes them so snowy.
What Officially Counts as a "White Christmas?"
Before we dive into the locations, it’s helpful to know what meteorologists mean when they talk about a “White Christmas.” According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the official definition is having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
It’s important to note that this doesn’t necessarily mean it has to be snowing on December 25th. The snow could have fallen days or even weeks before, as long as it’s still there when you wake up. This data is based on historical climate normals compiled over decades, giving us a clear picture of the probability across the United States.
States with a Near-Guaranteed White Christmas
For those who absolutely must have snow for the holidays, certain parts of the country are a sure bet. These locations, due to their northern latitude, high elevation, or unique weather patterns, have a historical probability of over 90% for a White Christmas.
Alaska
This is the most obvious and reliable choice. Much of interior Alaska is almost guaranteed to have a thick blanket of snow by late December.
- Fairbanks, Alaska: This city is a winter wonderland and boasts a near 100% historical probability of a White Christmas. The deep cold of the Alaskan interior ensures that any snow that falls in autumn stays put.
- Anchorage, Alaska: While slightly more moderate due to its coastal location, Anchorage still has a very high probability, typically well over 80-90%.
Minnesota
Known for its cold winters, the northern part of Minnesota is a stronghold for holiday snow.
- International Falls, Minnesota: Often called the “Icebox of the Nation,” this city on the Canadian border has a greater than 90% chance of a White Christmas. Its continental climate leads to frigid temperatures and consistent snowfall.
- Duluth, Minnesota: Situated on Lake Superior, Duluth benefits from both its northern location and lake-effect snow, giving it a very high probability.
Maine
The northern reaches of New England are another reliable spot for holiday snow.
- Caribou, Maine: Located in the far northeastern corner of the state, Caribou consistently has snow on the ground for Christmas, with historical odds well above 90%.
Michigan (Upper Peninsula)
The Upper Peninsula, or “U.P.,” is famous for its massive snow totals, thanks to lake-effect snow from Lake Superior.
- Marquette, Michigan: This is one of the snowiest cities in the country. Its location on the shores of Lake Superior means it gets hammered with lake-effect snow, giving it a 90%+ chance of a White Christmas.
States with a Very High Chance
While not quite a 100% guarantee, these states offer excellent odds for seeing snow on the ground on Christmas Day, especially in their northern or mountainous regions.
Colorado
While cities on the plains like Denver have about a 40-50% chance, the Rocky Mountains are a different story.
- Aspen and Crested Butte, Colorado: These famous mountain towns, situated at high elevations, have a near 100% probability of a White Christmas. The elevation ensures cold temperatures and plentiful snowfall throughout the early winter.
North Dakota
The entire state of North Dakota has a strong chance of a White Christmas due to its northern latitude and cold continental climate. Cities like Fargo and Bismarck historically have a 75-85% probability of having at least an inch of snow on the ground.
Wisconsin
Similar to its neighbor Minnesota, Wisconsin’s northern half is a great bet for snow. Cities like Green Bay and Wausau have a high probability, often in the 70-80% range, thanks to cold air sweeping down from Canada.
Vermont and New Hampshire
These classic New England states are excellent candidates for a picturesque White Christmas. The Green Mountains in Vermont and the White Mountains in New Hampshire are particularly reliable. Cities like Burlington, Vermont, and Concord, New Hampshire, typically see a 60-75% chance.
New York
The chances in New York vary dramatically by location. New York City has a relatively low probability. However, upstate New York is a snow machine.
- Buffalo and Rochester, New York: These cities are famous for their lake-effect snow from Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Their probability for a White Christmas is very high, often exceeding 70%. The Tug Hill Plateau region is one of the snowiest places east of the Rockies.
Where is a White Christmas Unlikely?
To provide a complete picture, it’s worth noting where a White Christmas is extremely rare. The entire southern tier of the United States, from Southern California through Arizona, Texas, and across to Florida, has a less than 5% historical chance. A White Christmas in Miami, Houston, or Los Angeles would be a truly historic weather event. The Pacific Northwest coast, including cities like Seattle and Portland, also has low odds due to the moderating influence of the Pacific Ocean, which keeps winter temperatures above freezing.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can I find the probability for my specific town? NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has an interactive map on their website where you can explore the historical probability of a White Christmas for thousands of weather stations across the country.
Has it ever snowed in Florida on Christmas? While extremely rare, some parts of northern Florida have seen trace amounts of snow around Christmastime, but an official White Christmas with one inch on the ground has not been recorded in the modern era for most of the state.
Does climate change affect the odds of a White Christmas? Yes, according to climate scientists, warming trends have generally decreased the probability of a White Christmas in many parts of the United States when compared to data from the mid-20th century. However, year-to-year variability is still very high.